Good morning, friends!
I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher—thanks for checking in with your full East Tennessee weather forecast. We’ll walk through the 7-day outlook, explain why the weather is playing out the way it is, and even take a look at what’s happening in the tropics.
Where We’ve Been
Yesterday was a classic late-September day: highs in the 70s and low 80s across the region, right on target for this time of year. We also finally picked up some much-needed rainfall at several reporting sites.
The Big Picture
Waves of rain are going to continue sliding through our area. This morning we’ll sneak in a break, but this afternoon and evening scattered showers and storms fire back up. What’s driving it?
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A digging trough over the eastern U.S. is producing lift and instability.
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That trough will cut off, forming a cutoff low that lingers through the weekend.
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The exact track of that low will determine who sees the heaviest rainfall, but current guidance suggests most of it stays in the Carolinas and Virginia.
For us here in East Tennessee, that means clouds and occasional light showers, but not enough to cancel those outdoor plans.
Rainfall & Flooding
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Totals: About 0.75–1 inch of rain through Friday, with a little more possible Saturday and Sunday.
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Flooding: The risk looks low. Breaks in the rain have allowed the ground to absorb moisture, and the heavier axis shifts southeast.
Temperatures
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Highs: upper 70s to low 80s—right on average for late September.
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Lows: mid 60s.
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Cold front this weekend brings slightly drier air, but not much of a cooldown.
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The Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight above-average temperatures as we wrap up September and move into early October.
7 Day Forecast Highlights -
Thursday: Scattered storms, highs near 80.
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Friday–Sunday: Clouds and lingering showers from the cutoff low. Not a washout.
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Monday–Tuesday: Drier, more sunshine.
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Late Week: Watching the tropics for impacts to the Southeast U.S.
Final Thoughts
So while we’ll deal with occasional showers through the weekend, the heaviest rain should stay southeast of us. Our local pattern remains seasonable, with highs near 80° and a mostly dry stretch building early next week.
Remember—you can always get quick updates on Witcher’s One Minute Weather inside the free East Tennessee Weather app. Download it in your app store or scan the QR code on your screen.
Have a great Thursday, and I’ll see you back here this evening with more on the big picture pattern and the tropics.
Tropical Update
The Atlantic is heating up:
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Tropical Storm Humberto – Winds at 45 mph, gusts up to 60 mph. Tracking northwest at 10 mph, expected to strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane by Monday.
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Caribbean disturbance – Another system north of the islands could drift toward the southeast U.S. coastline,bringing higher rain chances there next week.
