Happy Thursday, everybody. Sure hope you have a great day today.
We are officially one week away from Thanksgiving, and the weather pattern across the entire country is about to turn very active. This is the time of year when everything wakes up — the jet stream strengthens, storm tracks shift, and the atmosphere begins setting the stage for classic holiday travel headaches.
Let’s walk through it all and break down exactly what we’re watching here at home and across the nation.
Big Picture: Natioanl Pattern Turns Stormy Into Thanksgiving Week
We’ll start with the broad view before zooming into East Tennessee.
From Friday through the end of the month — which includes Thanksgiving travel week — multiple storm systems will sweep across the country:
• Snow across the Southwest and Intermountain West
• Rain developing across the Southeast and Mid-South
• Another round of heavy rain aimed at the Tennessee Valley
• Snow and lake-effect squalls across the Upper Midwest
• Potential mixed precipitation for parts of Kentucky and Appalachia
So yes — the country is about to get busy, and East Tennessee is positioned right in the path of several rounds of rainfall, and possibly even some snow after Thanksgiving.
Let’s break it all down step-by-step.
Today’s Local Setup: Fog Early, Clouds Increasing, Rain Arriving Late
We start today with some patchy dense fog, especially in the valleys and river corridors. As we move through the morning, sunshine breaks through, but clouds begin to increase through the afternoon.
By 3 PM, spotty showers begin developing west of I-75, creeping closer by the evening rush hour.
Rainfall amounts today through 7 PM will be light — around 0.10″ to 0.30″, mainly west of Knoxville.
Temperatures start cooler than yesterday (which was very warm), but still mild for mid-November. We’re in the 40s and 50s this morning and headed back into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.
Yesterday we overperformed into the upper 70s — today’s cloud cover should keep us closer to 70.
Short-Term Forecast: On and Off Rain Through Saturday
Here’s how the next several days play out:
Thursday Night
• Rain showers increase
• Light to moderate showers move west → east
• Not a washout, but damp overnight
Friday
• Spotty rain continues
• Another wave of showers arrives Friday night
• Still warm: near 70°
Saturday
• Clouds linger early
• Gradual clearing from west to east
• Breezy and cooler late
• Sunshine increases by afternoon
Sunday
• Dry
• Sunny
• Beautiful fall day
Early Next Week: Another Wet Pattern Begins
Sunday and Monday look dry, but don’t get used to it. A stronger system develops across the Southwest and begins marching east.
Monday Night – Tuesday
A new wave brings showers back into East Tennessee.
Tuesday – Wednesday
Rain ramps up and spreads across the region.
Some totals could be meaningful — we’ll show that below.
Rainfall Totals Through Wednesday
According to the Weather Prediction Center:
• Highest totals remain north of I-40
• Kentucky and Ohio get the bulk of the heavier rain
• East Tennessee sees 0.25″ to 0.75″ through Wednesday
• More follows late next week
This is just the first round — more arrives after Thanksgiving.
Your 7 Day Forecast
Thursday: Low 70s, clouds increasing, rain late
Friday: Low 70s, scattered showers
Saturday: Upper 60s, clearing
Sunday: Upper 60s, dry and sunny
Monday–Wednesday: Rain chances increasing, upper 60s to near 70
Now let’s look at Thanksgiving and beyond.
Thanksgiving Day Outlook: Cool, Dry, Mostly Sunny
As it stands right now:
• High: ~52°
• Sky: Mostly sunny
• Air: Crisp, quiet, comfortable
A perfect Thanksgiving weather day — but we’re still a week out, so we’ll fine-tune the details.
Black Friday Through Sunday: Snow Chances Increasing
Here’s where it gets interesting.
A deep trough digs into the eastern U.S. the weekend after Thanksgiving. Temperatures crash well below average, and the atmosphere becomes cold enough to support snow in several areas.
According to ensemble guidance:
• High confidence for snow in the Smokies and Cumberland Plateau
• Some potential for flakes in the Valley (low accumulation)
• Best shot for accumulating snow: Plateau & Smokies
• Timing: Friday → Sunday after Thanksgiving
This is not a single model run — it’s the ensemble blend, which smooths out the noise and gives us a much more reliable signal.
We’re not forecasting totals yet, but confidence is increasing. Stay tuned.
Final Notes & Travel Reminder
As we enter a stormier pattern with rain, snow, and active weather across the country, make sure you’re prepared — especially if you’re traveling for Thanksgiving.
The East Tennessee Weather App goes wherever you go.
Forecasts update automatically based on your location, and you’ll get alerts for storms, snow, and travel delays.
Just go to your app store and search East Tennessee Weather — turn on notifications and location services, and you’ll have everything you need in your pocket.
Have an awesome Thursday — more updates coming soon!
