Happy Sunday everybody.
Sure hope you have a great day. We’re stepping into a quiet stretch of weather to kick off this Thanksgiving week, but don’t let today and tomorrow fool you — a major pattern change is gearing up just a couple days from now.
Let’s break it all down cleanly so you can plan your travel, errands, and holiday schedule with confidence.
High Pressure in Control Today and Monday
High pressure is locked in over the southeastern U.S. this morning, and it will stay put through today and into Monday. That’s the feature keeping us quiet, dry, and mild.
Here’s what that means for us:
• Plenty of sunshine today
• Cooler than yesterday, but still comfortable
• Dry through Monday evening
• Temperatures stay elevated through midweek
Behind Friday night’s cold front, we’ve shaved off a few degrees, but not enough to make a dent in the overall warm pattern.
Most of the day today features sunshine, light winds, and temperatures climbing into the 60s — a very nice November Sunday.
Setting the Stage: High Pressure Moves East, Next Storm Approaches
As we head into Monday, high pressure slides toward the Atlantic coastline.
This is the “transfer of power” that opens the door for our next weather maker.
Once that high shifts east:
• Winds turn southerly
• Moisture begins increasing
• Clouds begin thickening
• Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday
This is a classic pre-front setup.
Monday: Increasing Clouds, Mostly Dry for Travelers
Let’s pick up our timeline Monday morning:
• Morning through afternoon — dry, increasing clouds
• Afternoon — southerly breeze strengthens
• Evening — still mainly dry
• Overnight — rain begins west of I-65 (Middle TN, northern Alabama, western KY)
If you’re traveling Monday, you’re in great shape across most of the region.
Tuesday: Widespread Showers, Cold Front Arrives
Tuesday is the main weather day this week.
A cold front will slide across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Ahead of it, waves of showers and a few heavier pockets of rain will sweep through.
Here’s the breakdown:
Tuesday Morning
• Rain spreading across East Tennessee
• Wet roads for the commute
• No severe weather expected
Tuesday Afternoon
• Waves of steady light-to-moderate rain
• Temperatures still in the 60s
Tuesday Night
• Cold front moves through
• Last round of showers
• Winds shift sharply northwest
• Temperatures begin dropping
Totals by sunrise Wednesday will generally be around 1 inch of rainfall, give or take a quarter inch depending on exact placement of bands.
The Cold Arrives: Trough Dives In From Canada
Once Tuesday night’s front passes through, the real change begins.
Starting Tuesday night, a deep trough dives out of Canada and delivers a strong push of cold, dry air.
Let’s set the clock:
Tuesday 7PM
Cold front approaches I-75; light rain continues.
Midnight – Wednesday Morning
Front clears the area; temperatures begin to fall.
Wednesday Afternoon – Night
Cold air pours in; winds turn northwesterly.
Thanksgiving Day – Saturday
We settle into the coldest air of the season in nearly two weeks.
This will be a classic, crisp late-November setup.
Holiday Forecast: Thanksgiving Through the Weekend
Here’s how temperatures look from Thursday through Sunday:
• Thursday (Thanksgiving): 40s & 50s, mostly dry
• Friday (Black Friday): Upper 40s, cold & crisp
• Saturday: Upper 40s to low 50s
• Sunday: Low–mid 50s, slight warmup begins
Average highs this time of year are in the upper 50s — so we’ll be running about 10° below average heading into the holiday weekend.
This is exactly what we expect behind a deep November trough.
Your 7 Day Forecast
• Today: 60s, sunny, comfortable
• Monday: 60s, increasing clouds
• Tuesday: Rain, near 60–65, front arrives at night
• Wednesday: Falling temps, turning breezy & cooler
• Thursday: 50s, Thanksgiving sunshine
• Friday: Upper 40s, cold & dry
• Saturday: Low 50s, cold morning, cool afternoon
No major travel concerns across East Tennessee after Tuesday’s front passes through.
Final Notes
High pressure today and Monday sets us up for a beautiful start to the week, but Tuesday’s front will be our next meaningful weather maker. Behind it — colder, drier, crisp holiday weather settles in.
I sure hope you have a great day.
Check back throughout the week — and don’t forget, you can track everything 24/7 with the East Tennessee Weather App.
