Good morning and happy Monday, everybody!
I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher from the East Tennessee Weather Center. I sure hope you had a fantastic weekend. Saturday brought a few storms, Sunday turned gorgeous, and now we’re kicking off a brand new week with some big changes on the way — a cold front that’s going to deliver some much-needed rain and a dose of cooler fall air across the region.
Before we dive into the forecast, I want to share a few of your awesome viewer photos! Thanks to everyone who submitted through the East Tennessee Weather App — you can always hit “Submit a Photo” right there in the app. Mindy Graves sent in a beautiful rainbow shot yesterday, and Andrew Butler captured another stunning view under those mix of sun and clouds. Great photos, everyone!
Monday Weather Setup – Warm and Breezy
This morning started off comfortable in the 50s and 60s, and we’ll warm up nicely as the day goes on. By lunchtime, most of us will be in the mid-70s, and this afternoon we’ll top out in the low 80s once again.
It’ll be a bit breezy, especially across the southern valley and higher elevations, as that pre-frontal wind picks up. It’s not going to be gusty enough for any concerns — just a nice, refreshing fall breeze.
A few isolated sprinkles or light showers may develop late this afternoon and evening, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau and southern valley. Most areas will stay dry, but a brief sprinkle can’t be ruled out. If you’ve got evening plans, don’t worry — it’s going to be another pleasant night overall with temperatures falling back through the 70s into the 60s.
The Big Picture – A cold Front is on the Way
Now, let’s zoom out and look at the big picture pattern. A cold front is tracking east across the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, and that’s what’s going to bring us our next solid round of rain.
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Tuesday Night into Wednesday: The front slides into East Tennessee.
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Timing: Most of the models agree the heaviest rain arrives after sundown Tuesday and continues into early Wednesday morning.
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Rainfall: Expect efficient rain producers, thanks to deep Gulf moisture feeding into the system.
Behind the front, high pressure over Canada builds in, ushering in drier and slightly cooler air.
Rain Chances & Temperatures
Here’s how the week shapes up:
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Monday: Partly sunny, breezy, 82° — stray sprinkle possible
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Tuesday: Increasing clouds, showers late, 83°
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Tuesday Night–Wednesday Morning: Rain likely (80–90% coverage), a few heavy downpours possible
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Wednesday Afternoon: Showers taper, clearing skies, cooler air moves in
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Thursday–Friday: Mostly sunny, 70s — perfect fall weather
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Weekend: Comfortable, dry, and seasonal
The dew points stay in the 60s through Tuesday (a bit muggy), then drop into the 50s behind the front — a noticeable improvement in how it feels outside.
Longer Range Outlook
This mid-week front won’t be a major cooldown, but it opens the door for another system that could deliver some of the coolest air of the season beyond the 7-day forecast.
The Climate Prediction Center continues to signal above-average temperatures overall through mid-October, but with cooler shots mixed in — the kind of back-and-forth pattern that makes fall in East Tennessee so interesting.
Quick Recap
- Warm and breezy today
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Isolated sprinkle possible, mainly Plateau/Southern Valley
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Cold front brings widespread rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
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Sunshine and cooler air return late week
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Another front possible next week with a deeper cooldown
If you just want the quick version, you can always check out Witcher’s One Minute Weather — available right now on the East Tennessee Weather App, online at eastTNweather.com, and on YouTube.
Have a great Monday, my friends — I’ll see you back here this evening with your latest update and timing on that cold front!
