Happy Thursday, friends!
I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher here with your full East Tennessee weather forecast. As we turn the page on the first week of October, we’re finally starting to feel some changes in the weather pattern. If you’ve been waiting on a break from the summerlike warmth we had earlier this week, today brings some relief.
Yesterday we saw highs climb into the low, mid, and even upper 80s in spots, but thanks to a Canadian ridge of high pressure sliding down the eastern seaboard, today’s temperatures are trending cooler. We kicked off the morning in the comfortable 50s and 60s, and by lunchtime we’ll be in the low 70s. Afternoon highs today will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the valley, with a few mid-80s pockets across the central and southern valley. That’s several degrees cooler than what we felt on Wednesday.
We kicked off the morning in the comfortable 50s and 60s, and by lunchtime we’ll be in the low 70s. Afternoon highs today will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the valley, with a few mid-80s pockets across the central and southern valley. That’s several degrees cooler than what we felt on Wednesday.
If you’ve got outdoor plans this evening – football practice, soccer games, or just a fall walk – the weather will cooperate beautifully. Expect 78 degrees by 6 PM, dropping to 73 around 8 PM, and down into the upper 60s by 10 PM. A really nice, comfortable night is ahead.
Big Picture Weather Pattern
This ridge of high pressure is the main driver of our forecast. It’s stretching from Canada into the Tennessee Valley, blocking major storm systems and providing us with sunny, quiet, and dry weather through Sunday. Dew points will stay low through Saturday, keeping the air comfortable and limiting rain chances.
But things start to change as we open next week. Moisture will creep back in from the Gulf of Mexico by Monday and Tuesday, and then a cold front will slide into East Tennessee by Tuesday night into Wednesday. That combination of Gulf moisture and a frontal boundary will increase our rain chances and bring a line of showers and thunderstorms mid-week.
Rainfall Outlook
Short-term, we stay mainly dry with only a 20–30% chance for showers Tuesday into Wednesday. However, rainfall totals could add up to around an inch across the region by the time this system moves through. That’s much-needed relief in what is climatologically the driest month of the year for Tennessee.
Behind the cold front, dew points will drop quickly, giving us crisp mornings, more comfortable afternoons, and that classic “fall feel” we’ve all been waiting for.
Looking Ahead
Your 7-day forecast keeps us in a pretty seasonal stretch – highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows in the 50s. By late next week, we may see another ridge of high pressure build back into the region. That would mean a return to slightly warmer temperatures as we move into the middle of October.
The Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight the potential for above-average temperatures beyond the 7-day forecast, so it may not be time to pack away the short sleeves just yet.
Quick Takeaway
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Cooler today vs. yesterday
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Comfortable nights ahead
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Dry stretch continues into the weekend
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Rain chances increase Tuesday–Wednesday with a cold front
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Pattern may shift back to warmer weather next week
Stay with me on all eastTNweather platforms for the latest updates. And remember, if you want a quick one-minute version of this forecast, check out Witcher’s One Minute Weather on the East Tennessee Weather App, Roku, Amazon Fire, YouTube, or at eastTNweather.com.
Hope you have a fantastic Thursday – enjoy the cooler air!
