Good morning, East Tennessee! I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and thanks for checking in with your big-picture weather update. Today we’ll break down how this week’s storm chances will play out, what it means for Knoxville, the Smoky Mountains, and the rest of the Tennessee Valley, plus your detailed 7-day forecast.
Trecap of Yesterday’s Weather
Saturday brought us a healthy dose of much-needed rain. Not every reporting station logged measurable rainfall, but McGhee Tyson Airport picked up 0.19”. Locally heavier downpours set up in parts of Sevier County, prompting flash flooding concerns, while additional flooding was reported just north of Rogersville and near Maynardville and Tazewell. Across the region, temperatures stayed seasonable with highs in the 70s and low-to-mid 80s.
Today’s Forecast – Morning Fog, Afternoon Sunshine
This morning begins with patchy fog, especially in valley locations. As the fog lifts, expect skies to turn partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s and low 80s, right around average for late September. Tonight looks comfortable with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Tropics Update – Great News for Fall Break Travelers
We’ve been closely monitoring tropical systems in the Atlantic, especially Tropical Depression Nine, but the forecast has shifted in a positive way. Latest model guidance shows this system curving sharply eastward—taking a hard right turn away from the U.S. mainland thanks to an upper-level disturbance. While it could briefly strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, this track keeps the heaviest rainfall offshore.
For the Carolina coastline, this is excellent news—rainfall totals will now be lower than earlier projections. And for East Tennessee travelers headed south for fall break vacations, the drier forecast is even better news.
Local Impacts for East Tennessee
Because the tropical system is veering east, we’ll also stay largely dry. A strong ridge of high pressure is building in, locking in a stable, comfortable fall-like pattern. Only a 20% chance of isolated showers lingers Monday through Wednesday, mainly across the Smoky Mountains and higher terrain. Most valley locations—including Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Tri-Cities—will stay dry.
The Weather Prediction Center keeps the heaviest rain confined to the southeastern coast through Tuesday and again late next week. Locally, rainfall totals will be light, and flash flooding concerns shift well to our southeast.
Extended Outlook – October Pattern Taking Shape
Looking beyond the 7-day forecast, the Climate Prediction Center calls for average to slightly below-average rainfallfrom October 4–8 across East Tennessee. Temperatures will trend back and forth—slightly above average today and Monday, then settling into the mid-to-upper 70s midweek before potentially climbing again into early October.
7 Day Forecast Highlights
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Sunday: Morning fog, afternoon sun. High: 80°
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Monday–Wednesday: Mostly sunny, spotty mountain showers. Highs: upper 70s to low 80s
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Thursday–Friday: Comfortable, seasonable fall weather. Highs near 78°
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Weekend Outlook: Quiet pattern continues, with slightly warmer afternoons
Final Word
The bottom line: no tropical threats for East Tennessee this week, mostly dry skies, and comfortable fall temperatures. If you’re heading to the Smokies, the Plateau, or even the Carolina beaches for fall break, conditions look favorable.
For a quick 60-second version of the forecast, check out Witcher’s One Minute Weather on the East Tennessee Weather App, at eastTNweather.com, or on YouTube.
Have a great Sunday, and I’ll see you back here at 6 with your evening update!
