Good morning, friends! I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and thanks for checking out your Tuesday weather blog. Let’s dive into the big-picture weather story that will impact East Tennessee through the rest of this week and into next.
Looking Back at Monday
Yesterday, we once again trended at or slightly above average. Knoxville, Chattanooga, and the Tri-Cities all saw warmer-than-normal highs, keeping this stretch of late summer heat alive. But that’s about to change in a big way.
The Week Ahead: Rain, Storms, and a Cold Front
We’re talking about waves of rain and thunderstorms continuing to move across the region. Here’s how the pattern unfolds:
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Today (Tuesday): Scattered showers possible, especially west and north of the Valley. Stronger storms likely if you’re traveling into Middle or West Tennessee.
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Wednesday–Thursday: The main event. A surge of deep Gulf moisture combines with a passing trough to produce widespread heavy rain. Expect efficient rain producers capable of dropping 1–3 inches in spots. Localized flooding is a concern.
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Friday: A cold front finally pushes through, sweeping moisture southeast and beginning to dry us out.
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Weekend: Sunshine and fall-like weather return Saturday through Monday.
Inverse Relationship: Rain Up, Temps Down
As rain and clouds build, temperatures fall. Highs will trend downward into the mid and upper 70s by late week, while overnight lows hover in the 60s. That’s a nice change after running above normal most of September so far.
Severe Weather Risk
While widespread severe storms aren’t expected here today, the Storm Prediction Center does highlight stronger storm potential to our west. That risk shifts eastward midweek, so by Wednesday and Thursday, East Tennessee could see isolated strong storms along with the heavy rainfall.
Moisture Surge
Meteorologists call this “copious moisture transport.” Simply put, the atmosphere will be primed to dump heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. If you live in a flood-prone area or plan to travel, keep an eye on conditions.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend and Beyond
Earlier in the week, model guidance hinted that a cut-off low might linger over the Southeast into the weekend. That would have meant more clouds and showers. The latest runs now suggest the trough won’t stick around — good news for those hoping for a dry, fall weekend.
Here’s the outlook:
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Saturday–Monday: Sunny, dry, and pleasant. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
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First Week of October: Long-range signals show below-average precipitation and a gradual return to warmth, with temps trending back at or above average.
7-Day Forecast Highlights
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Tuesday: Scattered showers, upper 80s.
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Wednesday–Thursday: Heavy rain likely, localized flooding possible, highs in the 70s.
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Friday: Cold front moves through, showers tapering off.
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Saturday–Monday: Sunshine, comfortable highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s.
Final Thoughts
So, the story this week: big rain midweek, a cold front Friday, then a gorgeous fall weekend. Enjoy the drier air once it arrives!
And remember, if you want the short version, check out Witcher’s One Minute Weather on the East Tennessee Weather app, YouTube, Roku, and Amazon Fire. Just search East Tennessee Weather in your app store to download.
Have a great Tuesday, friends, and I’ll see you back here this evening with another update.
