Happy Friday, everyone!
I sure hope you’re having a great start to your day and are ready for the weekend ahead. Thanks for checking in with your full East Tennessee weather forecast. I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and we’re talking about heat, a few storm chances, and the potential for a much-needed pattern change that could finally bring beneficial rainfall to our region.
Let’s start with the numbers. Yesterday, many of us saw slightly above-average temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. It stayed dry across the valley with just a stray pop-up shower. Today will be another scorcher across East Tennessee, with Knoxville heading to 88°, Chattanooga near 89°, and Tri-Cities topping out in the low 80s. The heat continues through the weekend with Saturday at 87° and Sunday at 86°.
Today’s Forecast
For today, expect a quick climb from the 60s this morning into the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon. Some valley locations could flirt with 90°. Chattanooga will be close at 89°, Knoxville comes in around 86°, and spots like Scott, Hawkins, Hancock, Blount, and Sevier counties will top out in the low to mid 80s. If you have evening plans, temperatures will stay warm and comfortable — 82° by the evening commute and down into the 70s tonight under mostly clear skies.
Futurecast shows plenty of sunshine today, though clouds will build across the Smoky Mountains. A southeast flow is helping pump in some moisture, but the upper-level steering winds are keeping most of the showers and storms over North Carolina. A few isolated showers may sneak into mountain counties, but it’s not going to add up to much. Friday looks similar, but by Saturday a weak wave drifts in, sparking off a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Most of that activity will again be focused on higher elevations, but some storms could drift into valley communities.
A Look Ahead
While sunshine dominates, we are beginning to see a little more upper-level energy in the atmosphere. Today and tomorrow, there’s a weak disturbance passing to our north and northwest. It’s not strong enough to push directly into the valley, but it could help spark scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the Plateau and the Smoky Mountains. Most of those storms will stay confined to the higher elevations, though a few could drift into the valley. For the majority of us, it’ll be hot, mostly dry, and great for outdoor plans.
Saturday’s the big football game at Neyland Stadium. Kickoff temps will be in the mid-80s and climbing toward 87° by mid-afternoon. It will feel warmer than last weekend’s game, so keep water handy and plan for sunshine. A stray mountain storm is possible, but I don’t expect widespread rain in Knoxville during game time. For early-morning tailgaters, expect a pleasant start in the 60s before the heat ramps up.
Sunday looks quieter overall, with clouds increasing late in the day and just a slim chance of a shower. Most of East Tennessee will stay dry to close out the weekend, though the Smokies and Plateau could again see isolated storms.
Now, let’s talk about the pattern change. High pressure at the surface continues to dominate today and Saturday, but by next week, energy builds from the west and moisture levels begin to rise. That’s when our rain chances finally start to climb. Beginning Tuesday, we’ll bump rain chances into the 20–30% range, peaking midweek as a stronger trough slides into the Southeast.
The Weather Prediction Center rainfall outlook suggests we could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain by late next week. Looking further out, the 6–10 day and 8–14 day precipitation outlooks both highlight above-average rainfall potentialacross East Tennessee and the Appalachian region through early October. While long-range models aren’t perfect, some projections hint at 2 to 4 inches of rain possible over the next 15 days. After a hot and mostly dry stretch, this would be very beneficial for lawns, gardens, and reservoirs.
Here’s your 7-day forecast:
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Friday: High 88°, mostly sunny, very isolated storm chance.
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Saturday: High 87°, partly sunny, isolated mountain storms, hot for the UT game.
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Sunday: High 86°, mix of sun and clouds, slim shower chance late.
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Monday (First Day of Fall!): High mid-80s, dry and warm.
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Tuesday–Wednesday: Highs in the mid-80s, increasing humidity and 20–30% rain chances.
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Thursday: High near 83°, seasonable with scattered showers possible.
The first official day of fall arrives on Monday, but it won’t feel very autumn-like just yet. Highs will stay in the 80s, and humidity will creep back up ahead of next week’s rain chances. Longer-term, the Climate Prediction Center still suggests above-average temperatures to close out September and start October.
A Look Ahead
So, the takeaway: hot and dry today, warm football weekend with only isolated mountain storms, and then a more active pattern setting up next week with real rain chances returning to East Tennessee.
Don’t forget, you can download the East Tennessee Weather app for interactive radar, lightning alerts, and quick daily video updates. You’ll also find me on YouTube, Roku TV, Amazon Fire, and social media with updates throughout the day.
Have a great Friday, enjoy your weekend, and I’ll see you back here for the evening update around 6 o’clock.