Happy Sunday, East Tennessee! I sure hope you’re having a great day. I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and today we’re talking about the big-picture weather pattern that’s going to shape the week ahead. We’ve got changes coming — elevated rain chances, a deepening trough, and even the potential for gusty winds and localized flooding. Let’s dive in.
Looking Back at Saturday
Most of the region stayed fairly dry yesterday. The Tri-Cities picked up just 0.43 inches of rain, while Knoxville warmed to 88°. Chattanooga was the hot spot again, topping out at 91°. Highs across the valley and plateau ran 5–10 degrees above normal, reminding us that late-summer heat is still hanging on.
What to Watch This Week
Here are the key headlines:
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Spotty storms possible through Tuesday.
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Deepening trough settles in mid to late week.
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Elevated rain chances Wednesday through Saturday.
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Potential for gusty winds and localized flooding with repeated rounds of rain.
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Temperatures trending downward toward — and possibly below — seasonal averages.
The Setup
At the surface, moisture continues to build across East Tennessee. Aloft, we’ve got a weak trough swinging through through Tuesday. That will help spark some spotty showers and storms, especially during the afternoon hours. Nothing widespread yet, but enough to keep rain gear handy.
By Wednesday, though, things change. A stronger, deeper trough digs into the eastern United States. This feature taps into a huge moisture transport from the Gulf, pulling high levels of atmospheric water content (what meteorologists call “precipitable water”) into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. With that much moisture in place, rain coverage and totals will climb.
The Weather Prediction Center is already highlighting a corridor of 2–3 inches of rainfall stretching from Missouri and Indiana right into East Tennessee. That means multiple days of showers and storms are likely Wednesday through Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. With saturated soils, some areas could see localized flooding.
Temperatures Trend Down
Average high for this time of year in Knoxville is 81°. We’ll stay above that mark today and Monday, with 86° on Sunday and 86° again for the first day of fall on Monday. By Tuesday we slide to 85°, then dip closer to seasonal averages by midweek. If clouds and rain linger, we may even run below normal Friday and Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s.
Beyond the 7-day forecast, the Climate Prediction Center suggests we may not stay cool for long. Their long-range outlook favors above-average temperatures to close out September and kick off October.
Your 7-Day Forecast at a Glance
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Sunday: High 88°, mix of sun and clouds, isolated storm.
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Monday (First Day of Fall): High 86°, warm, a few spotty showers.
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Tuesday: High 85°, scattered storms possible.
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Wednesday–Friday: Highs 80–83°, widespread showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy rain.
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Saturday: High near 79°, lingering showers, breezy, and seasonably cool.
So, the takeaway: enjoy today’s warm sunshine while you can. The pattern shifts midweek, bringing East Tennessee its wettest stretch in weeks. With rain chances rising and storms in the forecast, this is a good time to download the East Tennessee Weather app, turn on GPS alerts, and stay connected for updates.
And remember, if you just want the quick version of the forecast, check out Witcher’s One Minute Weather, updated twice a day on the East Tennessee Weather app, YouTube Shorts, Roku TV, and Amazon Fire.
Have a great Sunday, stay weather-aware, and I’ll see you back here this evening with your next update.
