Good morning and happy Sunday, East Tennessee!
I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and I sure hope you’ve had a great weekend so far. Grab that cup of coffee, take a deep breath of that crisp fall air, and let’s dive into your full big picture forecast for today and the week ahead.
It’s shaping up to be another beautiful day across the region — sunshine for most of us, a few passing clouds thanks to a coastal low, and a mild afternoon on tap.
Sunday Setup – Coastal Low Brings a Few Clouds
Now, let’s talk about what’s going on in the atmosphere today.
We’re watching a coastal low spinning to our southeast, near the Georgia and Carolina coastline. That system will sling some clouds into Upper East Tennessee, but for most of us, sunshine will win out.
At the same time, high pressure continues to nudge in from Texas, keeping our overall weather pattern quiet, dry, and mild. The setup has us sandwiched between those two systems — the low to the east and the ridge to the west — which means we get a blend of both: a few clouds, but no rain.
Today’s Forecast
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Morning: Chilly start in the 40s and 50s
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Midday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, near 70° by noon
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Afternoon: Warm and dry, highs in the upper 70s
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Evening: Clear and comfortable, 74° by 6 PM, dropping to 62° by 10 PM
Best Chance for Clouds: Upper East Tennessee — counties like Greene, Carter, Washington, and Sullivan will see more mid-level clouds drifting in.
Clearest Skies: Knox County westward through the Plateau and into the southern valley.
Even with those extra clouds in spots, today will still be fantastic for outdoor plans — whether you’re at the pumpkin patch, hiking the Smokies, or getting the kids outside before school starts back up tomorrow.
Big Picture Weather Pattern
Let’s zoom out and show you the synoptic setup (that’s the “why” behind our weather).
We’ve got:
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High pressure over Texas expanding eastward
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Low pressure near the coast tracking north along the Atlantic seaboard
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East Tennessee caught in the middle — calm, stable, and mostly dry
This setup keeps rain chances near zero through midweek. The clouds from the coastal low drift by today and tonight, but high pressure takes full control again starting Monday.
Futurecast Outlook
Running through your futurecast, we’ll see sunshine dominate this morning, then a few mid- and upper-level clouds spreading in from the east later today.
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No measurable rainfall expected today
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Maybe a stray sprinkle in far northeast Tennessee — and that’s about it
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Tonight stays clear and comfortable
Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, and lows tonight dip into the low 50s.
Looking Ahead – Dry Stretch Continues
If you’re tired of mowing your lawn — good news! We’re looking bone-dry for most of the next week.
That ridge of high pressure strengthens over the Tennessee Valley early in the week, keeping skies sunny and temperatures mild.
We’ll warm back into the upper 70s to near 80° by Monday through Wednesday. Then, a weak trough slides through late week, which may bring a few clouds and a minor cooldown for Thursday and Friday.
Another trough approaches next weekend, which could nudge our rain chances to around 10–20%, but it doesn’t look like a big soaker. And honestly, we could use the rain — October is our driest month of the year, and it’s showing.
Fall Foliage Update – Warm Weather Delays Peak Colors
You may have noticed the fall color change has been slower and more muted this year. That’s because of two things:
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Above-average temperatures
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Below-average rainfall
The leaves are taking their time this year — some trees are just now starting to show hints of yellow and orange in the higher elevations. Expect color to really pop mid- to late October if we can get a few cooler nights and maybe a little rain.
Climate Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center continues to favor:
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Below-average rainfall
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Above-average temperatures
through at least mid-October.
So, expect more mild days, crisp mornings, and lots of sunshine in the extended outlook.
7-Day Forecast Snapshot
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Sunday: Sunshine, a few clouds east, 78°
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Monday–Wednesday: Dry and warm, highs upper 70s to near 80°
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Thursday–Friday: Slight cooldown, highs low 70s
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Next Weekend: Spotty rain chance returns (20%)
Quick Recap
☀️ Mostly sunny, dry, and mild today
️ Highs in the upper 70s
️ A few clouds east of Knoxville
️ Rain chances near zero until next weekend
Fall color delayed due to warm, dry weather
If you only have a minute, remember — you can catch Witcher’s One Minute Weather anytime on the East Tennessee Weather App, on YouTube, or online at eastTNweather.com.
Enjoy your Sunday, East Tennessee. Get outside, soak in that sunshine, and make the most of this perfect fall weather!
