Happy Monday, everybody! I sure hope you’re having a great start to the week. I’m meteorologist Mike Witcher, and today we’re talking about the big-picture weather pattern shaping East Tennessee over the next several days. We’ve got storm chances, heavy rain potential, and eventually a taste of fall air by the weekend.
Quick Update
If you ever want the short version of the forecast, check out One Minute with Witcher on the East Tennessee Weather app. Just head to your app store, search East Tennessee Weather, and download it today. You’ll also find daily video updates on YouTube, Roku TV, and Amazon Fire.
Looking Back at Sunday
Temperatures on Sunday stayed above average for all of East Tennessee:
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Knoxville: 89°
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Crossville: 81°
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Chattanooga: 85°
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Tri-Cities: 83°
That’s 4–7° above normal for late September, and it’s a reminder that late-summer heat hasn’t completely let go yet.
Stormy Stretch Ahead
Here’s what we’re watching:
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Spotty strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday.
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A deepening trough Thursday into Friday ramps up rain chances.
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Heavy, efficient rain producers Thursday could bring localized flooding.
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Cooler temps arrive late week with highs near 80° by the weekend.
Today and Tuesday: expect a 40% chance of showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Tuesday’s severe risk shifts a bit west but stays close enough to keep an eye on.
Wednesday: Rain chances climb to 60% as a stronger trough digs into the region.
Thursday: This looks to be the wettest day of the week. With abundant Gulf moisture in place, storms will be “efficient rain producers.” That means rainfall could pile up quickly, leading to localized flash flooding. Everyone across East Tennessee has a good chance to see rain on Thursday.
Friday–Sunday: The system slowly slides east, but there’s a twist. If the low pressure cuts itself off from the main jet stream, it could linger across the Southeast into the weekend. That scenario would mean more clouds and occasional showers Saturday and Sunday. If it moves faster, the weekend stays mostly dry. Either way, temperatures drop closer to 80° with lower humidity, giving us a nice fall feel to the air.
Rainfall Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center highlights 2–3 inches of rainfall possible across East Tennessee by the end of the week. That’s very beneficial considering we’re heading into October — historically the driest month of the year here.
7-Day Forecast Highlights
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Monday: High 87°, 40% chance of storms, isolated severe possible.
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Tuesday: High 85°, scattered storms, still warm and humid.
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Wednesday: High 83°, 60% rain chance, storms more widespread.
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Thursday: High near 81°, soaking rain, flooding concerns possible.
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Friday: High 82°, scattered showers, trending drier late.
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Saturday: High 80°, mostly dry but a lingering shower possible.
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Sunday: High 80°, partly cloudy, comfortable fall feel.
Looking Ahead
Long-range models suggest temperatures may rebound above average again to close out September and kick off October. But for now, the story this week is storm chances, heavy rain potential, and a much-needed pattern change.
Stay weather-aware, especially Thursday when rain will be widespread. And don’t forget — you can track the storms with interactive radar on the East Tennessee Weather app.
I’ll see you back here for your evening update at 6. Have a great Monday!
