Good morning and happy Saturday!
Thanks for checking in.
It’s a stormy start to the day across East Tennessee as multiple waves of rain move through the region. We’ve been talking about this setup all week long, and now we’re entering the most active part of the forecast.
Several disturbances rotating around an upper-level storm system will continue bringing repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into the start of next week. While there will certainly be breaks in the rain, the atmosphere remains loaded with moisture, meaning any storm that develops will be capable of producing tropical-like downpours.
Flood Threat Remains the Biggest Concern
One of the biggest weather stories this weekend continues to be the flood potential.
Atmospheric moisture remains exceptionally high, providing plenty of fuel for heavy rainfall. If multiple rounds of thunderstorms move over the same location, flooding and flash flooding concerns will increase quickly.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight East Tennessee with:
- Level 2 flood risk Saturday
- Level 2 flood risk Sunday
- Level 1 flood risk Monday
Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour remain possible beneath the strongest storms.
Because of this, a Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday afternoon for much of East Tennessee.
Storms Will Come in Waves
Early morning radar already shows scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the region with pockets of locally heavy rainfall and a few Special Weather Statements already issued.
That pattern is expected to continue throughout the day.
This is not expected to be a nonstop all-day rain event.
Instead, expect periods of rain and thunderstorms separated by breaks where you’ll still have opportunities to get outside. However, if your location experiences multiple rounds of storms, rainfall totals will add up quickly.
Severe Weather Risk
The Storm Prediction Center has trimmed back the severe weather outlook slightly compared to Friday.
A Level 1 risk remains in place for much of East Tennessee, while portions of the Cumberland Plateau remain under a Level 2 risk.
The primary threat continues to be:
- Damaging straight-line winds
The encouraging news is that Sunday’s severe weather outlook has been reduced considerably. Yesterday, nearly all of East Tennessee was included in the risk area. Today, the higher severe weather threat has shifted farther south and southeast toward the mountain counties.
By Monday, no organized severe weather threat is expected.
Saturday Forecast
Forecast confidence remains a little lower than average because the exact timing of each disturbance is difficult to pin down.
Some forecast models are likely overestimating rainfall coverage, while others aren’t showing enough.
The overall message hasn’t changed.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue developing on and off throughout the day and into tonight.
Additional rounds of rain are expected overnight before another active day develops on Sunday.
Sunday Remains Unsettled
The weather pattern changes slightly on Sunday.
As the upper-level low shifts farther west, winds higher in the atmosphere become more southerly and southwesterly.
That means today’s storms will generally move from the west and northwest, while Sunday’s storms will approach from the south and southwest.
The result is more scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, although the exact timing will continue to evolve.
Weekend Rainfall Totals
By the time this system begins winding down Monday, forecast guidance continues to indicate:
- 2 to 4 inches of rain in localized areas
- Lower totals elsewhere
As always, don’t focus too much on the exact rainfall amounts shown over your neighborhood.
The forecast models are simply highlighting the potential for repeated heavy downpours somewhere across East Tennessee—not predicting that every location will receive identical totals.
Looking Ahead
The flood threat gradually decreases after Monday as this storm system finally exits the region.
A ridge of high pressure then begins building back across the Southeast, allowing temperatures to climb back toward seasonal levels.
Expect highs to return to the upper 80s and lower 90s next week with only the typical afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms that are common during July.
Bottom Line
Today and Sunday will feature repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing:
- Tropical-like downpours
- Localized flooding and flash flooding
- Damaging wind in the strongest storms
- Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches in isolated locations through Monday
There will be dry periods mixed in, so the weekend won’t be a complete washout, but you’ll want to stay weather aware and keep a close eye on radar before heading outdoors.
The East Tennessee Weather App remains your best tool for tracking storms in real time. If live severe weather coverage becomes necessary, I’ll send a push notification to app users so you can join the coverage immediately.
Have a great Saturday, stay weather aware, and we’ll get through this active weekend together.