Happy Sunday, everybody!
Thanks for checking in this morning. I hope you have a great day ahead.
Today is our transition day.
After several hot and humid days across East Tennessee, a cold front is finally moving in, bringing scattered showers, thunderstorms, and the potential for a few isolated strong to severe storms. The good news? Behind this front, we’re looking at several days of much more comfortable weather.
Let’s break it all down.
Sunday’s Weather Setup: Cold Front Approaching East Tennessee
This is the storm system we’ve been tracking for the last several days.
As of this morning, the main line of stronger thunderstorms remains back to our west, stretching through parts of Missouri and Arkansas. That complex will continue moving east as the day goes on, pushing our cold front into East Tennessee.
We’re already seeing a few isolated showers firing up early this morning, but the main concern will be later today as the atmosphere tries to destabilize.
The big question?
How much sunshine can we get?
That will determine how active things become later.
Severe Weather Risk Today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed East Tennessee under a Level 1 and Level 2 risk for severe weather today.
That means isolated severe storms are possible.
Main threats today:
- Damaging wind gusts
- Isolated flooding
- Localized flash flooding
The greater severe threat appears to be focused across the foothills and mountain counties.
The tornado risk remains very low.
Hail is also not a major concern because freezing levels in the atmosphere are simply too high for large hail production.
This is primarily a wind-driven setup.
Timing the Rain and Storms
Forecast models continue to show a somewhat broken and scattered storm pattern.
Here’s the breakdown:
Morning:
- Spotty showers
- A few isolated thunderstorms
- Cloud cover limits heating
Midday into Early Afternoon:
- More scattered activity develops
- Potential lull possible
Late Afternoon into Evening:
- Best chance for stronger storms
- Highest instability if sunshine breaks through
- Main severe weather window
Evening through Midnight:
- Storms continue
- Cold front pushes through
- Rain gradually winds down overnight
The atmosphere has plenty of moisture to work with, so any storm can produce heavy rain quickly.
Flooding Risk Remains Low But Worth Watching
The Weather Prediction Center has also outlined parts of East Tennessee in a Level 1 flooding risk today.
This is not expected to be a major flash flood event, but localized issues could develop.
Key concerns:
- Heavy downpours in a short amount of time
- Ponding on roads
- Poor drainage flooding
- Small creek rises
If you get stuck under one of these storms, rainfall rates could be intense.
Sunday Morning Conditions
Temperatures this morning are starting off in the 60s and 70s.
Humidity remains elevated, but today will not feel quite as oppressive as the past several days.
Winds will increase throughout the day as the front gets closer.
Expect:
- Breezy conditions
- Gusty winds outside of storms
- Higher gusts inside storms
It’s definitely going to feel active.
Sunday Afternoon Forecast: Slightly Cooler, Still Muggy
Cloud cover and falling heights in the atmosphere will shave a few degrees off today’s highs.
Forecast highs:
- Mid 80s across the northern valley
- Upper 80s across southern areas
- Lower 80s in higher elevations
Heat index values should stay in the low to mid 90s instead of pushing the upper 90s.
Still warm.
Still humid.
Just not brutally oppressive.
Sunday Evening Plans? Watch the Radar
If you have plans this evening, stay weather aware.
By 7 PM:
- Temperatures near 80°
- Scattered showers and storms possible
- Gusty winds possible
Not a washout, but definitely a radar-checking kind of evening.
Much Better Weather Arrives Monday Through Wednesday
This is the payoff.
Behind today’s cold front, East Tennessee gets a fantastic stretch of weather.
Monday through Wednesday will feature:
- Lower humidity
- Dew points in the 50s and lower 60s
- Cooler mornings
- Comfortable afternoons
- Plenty of sunshine
If you need to mow the yard, work in the garden, or spend time outside, this is your window.
It’s going to feel amazing compared to what we’ve been dealing with.
Another Rainmaker Returns Late Week
The quiet weather won’t last forever.
By Thursday into Friday, another frontal boundary moves in and brings another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals over the next 7 days could exceed 2 inches in some spots.
Today’s rain won’t produce all of that.
Much of it comes late week.
East Tennessee 7-Day Forecast
Sunday:
- Scattered showers and storms
- Strong storms possible
- High: 86°
Monday:
- Mostly sunny
- Less humid
- High: 82°
Tuesday:
- Beautiful weather
- Comfortable
- High: 81°
Wednesday:
- Sunny and pleasant
- High: 82°
Thursday:
- Warmer
- Increasing humidity
- High: 85°
Friday:
- Showers and storms return
- High: 82°
Saturday:
- Cooler
- Chance for showers
- High: 81°
Bottom Line
Today brings:
- Scattered showers and storms
- A few isolated strong storms
- Heavy downpours
- Gusty winds
But once this cold front moves through…
We’re in for one of the nicest stretches of weather we’ve seen in a while.
Lower humidity.
Cooler mornings.
Comfortable afternoons.
Enjoy the break while it lasts.
And if you haven’t downloaded the East Tennessee Weather app yet, now is the time. The interactive radar will be your best friend today as storms develop.
Allow notifications and location services so you can get alerted instantly if storms move into your area.
Especially if you’re heading out on the water or have outdoor plans.
Have a great Sunday, and stay weather aware.