Happy Friday, everybody!
We’ve been talking about this all week long, and now it’s finally here.
A cold front will move into East Tennessee today, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding. This will be the main weather story as we head into the weekend.
Let’s break down everything you need to know.
Friday Cold Front Arrives Across East Tennessee
The setup is coming together for an active weather day across the Tennessee Valley.
A strong cold front moving in from the west will interact with hot, humid, unstable air already in place over East Tennessee. That combination is exactly what fuels strong summer thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of East Tennessee under a Level 2 risk for severe weather today, which means scattered severe storms are possible.
This risk stretches from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast all the way down into the Tennessee Valley.
Here at home, the main concern will be:
- Damaging wind gusts
- Large hail
- Heavy rainfall
- Localized flash flooding
Damaging Wind Is the Biggest Threat
While hail is certainly on the table, damaging wind remains the primary concern with today’s storms.
Hail up to 1 inch in diameter is possible, but the atmosphere is favoring strong wind-producing storms.
Some storms could produce wind gusts of:
- 60 mph
- 70 mph
- Possibly 80 mph in isolated areas
That’s especially true if storms collapse on themselves, creating powerful downburst winds.
These are the kinds of storms that can:
- Knock down trees
- Cause isolated power outages
- Produce damage to outdoor structures
Timing: When Storms Arrive Today
The good news is the first half of the day looks mostly quiet.
Through lunchtime, most of East Tennessee stays dry with just increasing heat and humidity.
Storm timing looks like this:
Before 2 PM:
- Mostly dry
- Hot and muggy
- Building instability
2 PM to 5 PM:
- Isolated storms begin developing
- Spotty but potentially intense
5 PM to 9 PM:
- Best window for stronger storms
- Storms may begin lining out and pushing east/southeast
After 10 PM:
- Storms gradually weaken and move out
Not everyone will see rain today, but any storm that develops will have the potential to become strong quickly.
Flash Flooding Also a Concern
Because of the deep tropical moisture in place, any storm will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall.
The Weather Prediction Center has East Tennessee under a Level 1 risk for excessive rainfall.
That means:
- Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible
- Ponding on roads
- Localized flooding
- Flash flooding in low-lying areas
With some areas still under drought conditions, the rain is welcome—but when it falls this hard, it can create problems fast.
Heat and Humidity Continue Before the Front
Before the storms arrive, it’s going to feel downright miserable outside.
Morning temperatures are already in the 60s and 70s, warmer than yesterday, and dew points remain deep in the 70s.
That means:
- Extremely humid conditions
- Very little relief
- A sticky, tropical feel
High temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Combined with humidity, heat index values will reach:
- Mid 90s
- Upper 90s in some spots
If you work outside, take extra water and frequent breaks.
Heat safety matters just as much as storm safety today.
Saturday Forecast: Not a Washout, But Watching Late Storms
Saturday looks much quieter overall.
Friday’s cold front moves east, but another warm front and disturbance approach from the west.
Most of the day looks dry.
However, by late afternoon and evening, we may see a decaying cluster of showers and storms moving into East Tennessee.
This forecast remains somewhat uncertain.
If you have outdoor plans Saturday:
Morning:
- Dry
Afternoon:
- Hot and muggy
Evening:
- Watching for scattered storms
That includes Hops in the Hills in Maryville Saturday evening.
Sunday Brings Another Round of Rain
Sunday brings another cold front and another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, widespread severe weather does not look likely, but storms will once again be capable of:
- Heavy rain
- Frequent lightning
- Gusty winds
Rainfall totals through the weekend could be beneficial for drought conditions.
Better Air Returns Next Week
The best weather of the forecast arrives Monday through Wednesday.
Behind Sunday’s front:
- Dew points fall into the 50s and lower 60s
- Humidity drops significantly
- Temperatures fall into the lower 80s
That means:
- More comfortable mornings
- Less sticky afternoons
- Better sleeping weather
Still warm, but much more manageable.
East Tennessee 7-Day Forecast
Friday:
- Strong to severe storms possible
- High: 91°
Saturday:
- Hot and muggy
- Mostly dry early
- Late storm chance
- High: 92°
Sunday:
- More scattered showers and storms
- High: 88°
Monday:
- Less humid
- Slight storm chance
- High: 82°
Tuesday:
- Pleasant and comfortable
- High: 81°
Wednesday:
- Mostly sunny
- Low humidity
- High: 82°
Thursday:
- Warming back up
- High: 84°
Hops in the Hills Forecast
If you’re heading to Hops in the Hills in Maryville Saturday:
5 PM: 92°
7 PM: 88°
9 PM: 82°
Hot and humid early, but we’ll be keeping an eye on a decaying cluster of storms approaching from the west.
Right now, the event looks manageable, but check back for updates.
Bottom Line
The biggest concern today is severe weather.
Main threats:
- Damaging winds up to 80 mph
- Large hail
- Heavy rainfall
- Localized flooding
Storm timing looks best after 2 PM, especially late afternoon into tonight.
Make sure your East Tennessee Weather App notifications are turned on and location services are enabled so you can get alerts immediately if storms develop near you.
Stay weather aware, stay hydrated, and I’ll keep you updated throughout the day.
Have a great Friday.